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Preliminary Program (September 25, 2003)

Program (PDF-68K)

Invited Speaker Abstracts (PDF-270K)

Session Descriptions

All abstracts (PDF - 3.5MB) ** note that abstracts are listed alphabetically by author for each session **

Sunday, 20 June 2004
1800 – 2000
Registration (set up posters)  
Monday, 21 June 2004
0700 – 0930
Registration (set up posters)  
0930 – 0945
Conference convenes – welcoming remarks L. Bengtsson, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany, and D. Carson, Director, World Climate Research Program
0945 – 1030
Keynote: Societal value of CLIVAR research: Using remote sensing in the Bay of Bengal to predict cholera epidemics R. Colwell, Professor Emerita, CMPS-Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, University of Maryland, USA
1030 – 1100
1100 – 1130
Keynote: Why CLIVAR? L. Bengtsson, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany
1130 – 1200
Keynote: What is CLIVAR? Progress to date. A. Busalacchi, Director of Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, USA
1200 – 1230
Keynote: Predictability of the coupled climate system: 100-year evolution from weather forecasting to climate prediction. J. Shukla, Director of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), George Mason University, USA
1230 – 1400
Lunch (set up posters)  
Session 1: Short-term climate prediction
1400 - 1410
Welcoming Remarks James R. Mahoney, Asst Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere; Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), USA
1410– 1455
Mechanisms of short-term climate variability. B. Hoskins, University of Reading, Vice-chair WCRP-JSC, UK; and M. Wallace, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, USA
1455 – 1515
Seasonal to interannual predictability (modeling aspects) P. Delecluse, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS, France, with D. Anderson, M. Davey, B. Kirtman, R. Kleeman, C. Penland, C. Wang and S. Zebiak
1515 – 1535
Evolution of observing system for seasonal to interannual climate prediction. M. McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA; and A. Hollingsworth, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK; with B. Kirtman, R. Reynolds, F. Vossepoel and S. Wijffels
1535– 1720
1720– 1810
Discussion: Value of climate forecasts. T. Palmer, ECMWF, UK and S. Zebiak, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, USA
Tuesday, 22 June 2004
Session 2: The monsoon systems
0830 – 0915
Monsoons J. Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, UK; C.R. Mechoso, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California; and P. Webster, School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology
0915 – 0935
Variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon and major roadblock to seasonal prediction B.N. Goswami, Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science; T. Yasunari, Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University; and G. Wu, National Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences
0935 – 0955
The monsoon systems of the Americas. C. Vera, CIMA, Universidad de Buenos Aires-CONICET, Argentina and W. Higgins, Climate Prediction Center - NCEP/NWS/NOAA, with J. Amador,T. Ambrizzi, R. Garreaud, D. Gochis, D. Gutzler, D. Lettenmaier, J. Marengo, C.R. Mechoso, J. Nogues-Paegle, and
C. Zhang
0955 – 1015
The African monsoon system C. Thorncroft, University of Albany, SUNY; and L. Ogallo, Professor, Drought Monitoring Center - University of Nairobi, Kenya; with C. Reason, and F. Semazzi
1015– 1200
1200 – 1330
  Session 3: The challenge of decadal prediction
1330 – 1415
Climate variability and predictability on decadal to century time scales. E. Sarachik, University of Washington; G. Boer, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada; and A. Weaver, University of Victoria, Canada
1415 – 1435
Atlantic variability and predictability. Progress and challenges for CLIVAR Martin Visbeck, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia Universtiy, and J. Hurrell, National Center for Atmospheric Research; with A. Busalacchi, A. Clarke, T. Delworth, R. Dickson, W. Johns, K.P. Kotermann, Y. Kushnir, D. Marshall, C. Mauritzen, M. McCartney, C. Reason, G. Reverdin, F. Schott, R. Sutton, I. Wainer, and D. Wright (Current and former members of the International CLIVAR Atlantic Implementation Panel
1435 – 1455
Pacific decadal variability: A review N. Schneider, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii;and S. Minobe,Division of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Hokkaido University, Japan; with C. Deser, Z. Liu, N. Mantua, H. Nakamura, and M. Nonaka
1500 – 1700
1700 – 1745
Discussion: Challenges for long-term climate prediction. M. Latif, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany; and G. Boer, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada
Wednesday, 23 June 2004
Session 4: Understanding long-term climate variations
0830 – 0915
Comparisons of observed paleoclimate and model-based studies of climate changes over the past two millennia M. Mann, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, USA; and K. Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK
0915 – 0935
Paleoclimatic perspectives on abrupt climate change J. Overpeck, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, USA; and R. Alley, Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, USA
0935 – 0955
Progress in paleoclimate modeling M. Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, and S. Joussaume, CNRS France, with P. Braconnot, A. Clement, H. Gildor, M. Khodri, D. Paillard, S. Tett, and E. Zorita
1000 – 1200
1200 – 1330
Session 5: The role of oceans in climate
1330 – 1415
Key ocean mechanisms in climate

J. Marotzke, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany; and Susan Wijffels, CSIRO Marine Research, Australia; with D. Wallace

1415 – 1435
The role of tropical oceans in climate P. Schopf, George Mason University, P. Chang, Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, USA and T. Yamagata, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Tokyo, Japan, with S.K. Behera, J. Carton, W.S. Kessler, G. Meyers, F. Schott, S. Shetye, T. Stockdale and S-P. Xie
1435 – 1455
The northern-hemisphere extratropical oceans and climate P. Rhines, School of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, USA; and R. Dickson, The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK
1455 – 1515
The role of extratropical southern hemisphere oceans in the Earth's climate system S. Rintoul, CSIRO Marine Research & Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems, Tasmania; and A. Gordon, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University with D. Olbers, and K. Speer
1515– 1700
1900 – 2130
Conference Dinner (Baltimore National Aquarium)  
Thursday, 24 June 2004
Session 6: Human influence on climate
0830 – 0915
Assessing climate change: A current perspective on progress and directions in the IPCC Working Group 1. S. Solomon (NOAA Aeronomy Lab) and D. Qin, Co-chairs of IPCC Working Group 1
0915 – 0935
Climate change detection and attribution: Beyond mean temperature signals. G. Hegerl, Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Duke University; T. Karl, NOAA, National Climatic Data Center; M. Allen, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, UK; N. Bindoff, Antarctic CRC, University of Tasmania; D. Karoly, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma; N. Gillett, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria; and F. Zwiers, Canadian Center for Climate Modeliing and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada
0935 – 0955
Climate change prediction. J. Mitchell, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK; and E. Roeckner, Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Germany
1000 – 1200
1200 – 1330
Session 7: Application of CLIVAR science to society
1330 – 1350
The Integration of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Development of Epidemic Early Warning Systems for Africa: Malaria and Meningococcal Meningitis M. Thomson, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI); with A. Ben Mohamed, S.J. Mason, L.E. Cuevas, T.B. Phindela, M.N. Ward, T.N. Palmer, A.P. Morse, and S.J. Connor
1350 – 1410
The Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX) - contributions to climate research S. Sorooshian, University of California, Irvine
1410 – 1430
CLIVAR Science: Application to energy A. Moura, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brazil; with L.C.B. Molion
1430 – 1450
Application of CLIVAR Science to Agriculture and Land Ecosystems S. Gadgil, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of Science, India; G. Hammer, Queensland Dept. of Primary Industries, Australia; M.V. Sivakumar, Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division, World Meteorological Organization; and J. Hansen, Int’l Research Institute for Climate Prediction, USA
1450 – 1510
Climate variability, fish and fisheries P. Lehodey, Oceanic Fisheries Programme, New Caledonia, with J. Alheit, M. Barange, T. Baumgartner, G. Beaugrand, K. Drinkwater,Jean-Marc Fromentin, S. Hare,G. Ottersen, I.R. Perry, C. Roy, C. Van der Lingen, and F. Werner
1510 – 1700
1700 – 1745
Discussion: Energy, agriculture, and health: links to IPCC. C. Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA; and H. Grassl, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany
Friday, 25 June 2004
Session 8: CLIVAR – Future challenges
0830 – 0900
Monitoring and prediction of the Earth’s climate K. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research; B. Moore, University of New Hampshire; T. Karl, NOAA, National Climatic Data Center; and C. Nobre, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudo Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
0900 – 0930
Atmospheric Observations and Data Assimilation for Climate Monitoring and Prediction A. Simmons, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and J. Derber, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, USA, with A. Hollingsworth, E. Kalnay, A. Lorenc; M. Manton, and K. Onogi
0930 – 1000
Observations and data assimilation (oceans) – A future perspective. D. Stammer, Universtät Hamburg, Zentrum für Meeres-und Klimaforschung, Germany; M. Rienecker, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and N. Smith Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia; with E. Harrison, and D. Roemmich
1000 – 1030
Integrated earth system modeling and very high resolution atmosphere/ocean modeling—Challenges with the Earth Simulator T. Matsuno, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Japan, with M. Kawamiya, M. Satoh, and Yukio Tanaka
1030 – 1100
Refreshments (remove posters)  
1100 – 1200
Discussion P. Lemke, Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven; G. Brasseur, Co-chair IGBP, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany; and D. Carson, World Climate Research Programme, Switzerland
1200 – 1245
Conference wrap-up. L. Bengtsson, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany, Chair-Scientific Organizing Committee; and D. Legler, Director, U.S. CLIVAR Program Office, Chair-Local Organizing Committee
Conference ends (Remove posters)  



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