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Tony Busalacchi, Co-chair of the CLIVAR Scientific Steering Group discusses the aims of the CLIVAR 2004 Conference.

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The 1st International Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Science Conference will bring together over 500 climate researchers from 56 countries who are contributing answers to fundamental questions on the variability of the climate system and how we can better predict future changes. Answers to these questions require we observe and understand the interplay between the global oceans and atmosphere, as well as characterize the role of the land-surface conditions which can act as a source of moisture to the atmosphere.

CLIVAR's focus is on natural variability and increasing our ability to predict the future of the climate system (how does the climate system of the earth work? how is it changing? can we predict future changes and if so, how might this impact our world?). El Niño is just one example (monsoons is another) of a phenomenon of interest to CLIVAR. Research in the 1980's and 1990's resulted in experimental forecasts of El Niño. Today, forecasts of ENSO (the general term referring to anomalous tropical Pacific conditions such as El Niño and La Niña) are routinely produced, but our skills in predicting when and by how much it affects local climate and weather remain a challenge. CLIVAR is not only addressing how to improve ENSO predictions, but is also exploring climate variability over decades and centuries and assessing if these changes are predictable. CLIVAR is also trying to discern how the climate system might be different under conditions of increased green-house gases as well as by different natural "forcings".

A series of commissioned and invited presentations will highlight the most relevant and newsworthy current research findings.

Our plans for providing a productive opportunity for media representatives are underway. Information on the featured speakers appears on this page. We are planning to provide accommodations for interviews and press conferences; more details will follow shortly.

Jana Goldman (Jana.Goldman@noaa.gov ; phone:(301)713-2483) and Kent Laborde (Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov; phone:(202)482-5757) are serving as the points of contact for further information. Please send all press/media inquiries to them.

Press Conference Announcements -

A Press Work Room for media will be in the VIP Suite on the Ballroom Level. The Press Room will be staffed from 8:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., except on June 25, when it will close at 1:00 p.m. Below is a schedule of daily press briefings. All briefings will be held in the Press Briefing Room (Room 330) one floor below the Press Work Room.

Monday June 21, 12:30-1:30 PM
TOPICS: El Nino, Monsoons, and Predicting climate in the short-term
Moderator: Antonio Busalacchi, Director of Earth System Science
Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, USA
Tim Palmer, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK
Steve Zebiak, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction,
Carolina Vera, CIMA, Universidad de Buenos Aires-CONICET, Argentina
Wayne Higgins, Climate Prediction Center - NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Peter Webster, School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology

Tuesday June 22, 11:00 AM-12:00 PM
Understanding climate: Decadal variability, extreme
precipitation, paleo climate
Moderator: Ed Sarachik, University of Washington
Martin Visbeck, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, USA
Mojib Latif, Max-Planck Instiut fur Meteorologie, Germany
Jonathan Overpeck, Institute, for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona
Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Wednesday June 23, 11:00 AM-12:00 PM
Role of the oceans in climate
Moderator: Jochem Marotzke, Max-Planck Instiut fur Meteorologie,
Toshio Yamagata, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Tokyo, Japan
Steve Rintoul, CSIRO Marine Research & Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems, Tasmania
Lynne Talley, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, USA
John Church, CSIRO Marine Research & Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems, Tasmania

Thursday June 24, 11:00 AM-12:00 PM
CLIVAR science and society: Role of humans, applications, IPCC, global warming
Moderator: Howard Cattle, International CLIVAR Project Office,
Southampton, UK
Susan Solomon, NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, USA; IPCC co-chair Working Group I
S. Gadgil, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute
of Science, India
John Mitchell, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA



Biographies and Abstracts
of Featured Speakers

Keynote Speakers

Using remote sensing in the Bay of Bengal to predict cholera epidemics - Dr. R. Colwell, CMPS-Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, University of Maryland, USA

The beginning: Why CLIVAR ? – how did CLIVAR start? - Dr. L. Bengtsson, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany

What does CLIVAR do? - Dr. A. Busalacchi, Director of Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, USA

How climate prediction came about: From weather forecasts to climate prediction – Our capabilities to deal with a ‘chaotic’ system. - Dr. J. Shukla, Director of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), George Mason University, USA

Session 1: Predicting climate one season to a few years in advance... How have we improved since five years ago? (Short-term Climate Prediction)

How can climate variability best be described to the public? - B. Hoskins, Vice-Chair WCRP JSC, University of Reading, UK

When using models to predict seasonal to interannual (e.g. El Niño) variations, how do we measure success? P. Delecluse, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS, France

What ocean, atmospheric, and land-surface observations are needed for better climate predictions? - M. McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA

Session 2: The Complexity of Monsoons (The Monsoon Systems)

How do monsoons develop? How predictable are they? - J. Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modeling, University of Reading, UK

The Asian monsoon puzzle: What is still missing? - B.N. Goswami, Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, India

Monsoons in the Americas – A different story? - C. Vera - Center for Atmosphere and Ocean Research - Universidad de Buenos Aires-CONICET, Argentina


Seasonal rainfall in Africa – A game with many players and high impacts - C. Thorncroft, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, University of Albany, USA

Session 3: Decadal Prediction... Will we ever be able to do it? (The Challenge of Decadal Prediction)

What is decadal variability? How does it differ from shorter-term variability (e.g. ENSO)? Taking the long shot on prediction? - E. Sarachik, University of Washington, USA

The Atlantic: the magic cooking pot of the Northern Hemisphere climate - M. Visbeck, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA

The Pacific: ENSO, ENSO, ENSO... Anything more??? - N. Schneider, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, USA

Session 4: Climate variations beyond our lifetime: What do we know? (Understanding Long-term Climate Variations)

Climate recorders of the past – what do they tell us? - M. Mann, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, USA

Paleoclimatic Perspectives on Abrupt Climate Change - J. Overpeck, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, USA

Modeling the distant past – are we confident of the results? - M.A.Cane - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, USA

Session 5: 2/3 of the Earth's surface is oceans: How important are the oceans in predicting future climate variability? (The Role of the Oceans in Climate)

Why are oceans critical to the global climate system? - J. Marotzke, Max-Planck Instiut für Meteorologie, Germany

Tropical oceans – connecting the hemispheres and modulating global climate? - P. Chang, Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, USA

Northern Oceans: an active player or a passive slave? - P. Rhines, School of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, USA

The Southern Oceans – a big unknown? - S. Rintoul, CSIRO Marine Research & Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems, Hobart, Tasmania

Session 6: Human influence on climate: Is it a factor? Can it be measured? (Human influence on Climate)

Climate Change – Evidence and uncertainties - S. Solomon, Co-chair IPCC Working Group 1, NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, USA

Fingerprints of climate change – are they as unique as human ones? - G.C. Hegerl - Nicholas School of the Environment - Duke University - Durham, NC, USA

The climate of the 21st century – Changes we have to face and potential surprises - J. Mitchell, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK


Session 7: Translating climate science to users: How can we better understand each other? (Application of CLIVAR Science to Society)

How can climate forecasting be used to improve health conditions around the world? - M. Thomson, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), USA

Water resources – the value of climate forecasting for managing a precious resource - S. Sorooshian, University of California, Irvine, USA

Energy demands of the modern society and climate feedbacks - A. Moura, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brazil


Profit or loss – Can we help the farmers? - S. Gadgil, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of Science, India

The oceans' food reservoir – affected by climate? - P. Lehodey, Oceanic Fisheries Programme, New Caledonia

Session 8: The CLIVAR legacy (Future Challenges)

What we need to observe in order to better predict - K.E. Trenberth - National Center for Atmospheric Research - Boulder, USA

Atmospheric Observations: what do we do with them? - A. Simmons, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK

The ocean: any chance for a global data coverage? - D. Stammer, Universtät Hamburg, Zentrum für Meeres-und Klimaforschung, Germany


How complicated and comprehensive do our climate models have to be? - T. Matsuno, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Japan












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This page last updated June 17, 2004
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